Method
Methods
Every estimate Swimetrica publishes carries its uncertainty, its method and its date. This section is the method half of that promise.
These pages describe how each published quantity is computed: what it assumes, where it is known to be weak, and when it last changed. Every method is versioned; a figure computed under an older version keeps its own citation rather than being recomputed silently under a newer one.
- 20 August 2026
Method for the development curve model v2.1
How swimmers of a given age, sex category and event have historically improved, expressed as a spread rather than a single path — and why that spread does not become a forecast for one person.
- 20 August 2026
Method for the coach effect estimator v1.4
How much of a swimmer's improvement is associated with a named programme, once age, event and prior trajectory are accounted for — and the two things this estimate can't tell apart from a coach's own effect.
- 20 August 2026
Method for the age–sex–pool adjustment v3.0
How a time swum by a 16-year-old in a 25 m pool is made comparable to one swum by a 24-year-old in a 50 m pool, and what that comparison can't tell you.
- 20 August 2026
How the intervals are calibrated
A 95% interval should cover the true value about 95 times in 100. This page reports whether Swimetrica's do, and where they fall short.
- 20 August 2026
Data provenance
Which federations supply what, how often, and — the part that is usually left out — what is missing.